Projecting the Top 5 Contenders for the NBA Championship and the #1 Overall Pick in 2021…
The 20–21 NBA season tipping off will begin what is sure to be one of the strangest seasons in history. Teams will play a condensed 72 game schedule with strict protocols to prevent COVID outbreaks. While there will likely be plenty of unpredictability, fans can count on a select few teams that will rise to the top and some that will filter to the bottom of the standings. Here are my projections for the most likely NBA Championship winners and the most likely teams to win the #1 overall pick in the 2021 draft.
NBA Championship Contenders
- Los Angeles Lakers
The reigning champions would be the title favorites even if their team personnel stayed the exact same after last season. When you have LeBron James and Anthony Davis, you are afforded the benefit of the doubt. However the Lakers did not keep the same personnel. They went out and got better players exchanging Avery Bradley, Danny Green, Javale McGee, and Dwight Howard for Dennis Schröder, Wesley Matthews, Montrezl Harrell, and Marc Gasol without giving up significant assets. Los Angeles may start the season slowly by their standards while new players gel together and James and Davis take time to ramp up their intensity. That should not be an issue in their chase for the title, as their two best players will turn it on when it counts.
2. Milwaukee Bucks
The Bucks have moved up in these rankings since Giannis inked his supermax extension removing a potential monumental distraction hanging over the Bucks’ season. With his contract firmed up, the team can focus solely on improving from last year’s second round playoff exit. The Miami Heat exposed every weakness the Bucks had, and now Milwaukee has had a chance to address those weaknesses. While they wildly overpaid in draft compensation for Jrue Holiday, they will be better off this year with Holiday in their starting lineup. Giannis is essentially a ticket to a guaranteed 1st or 2nd seed in the East, so hopefully this year home court advantage will actually matter and the Bucks will be heavy favorites to reach the finals.
3. Los Angeles Clippers
There has been a lot of drama and intrigue surrounding the Clippers since their surprising collapse in the playoffs against the Denver Nuggets. There were reports of poor chemistry and favoritism in the locker room. These types of issues can certainly derail good teams, but the fact remains that the Clippers still have Paul George and Kawhi Leonard who each have the potential to be the best wing players (outside of LeBron) in the league. While the team lost Montrezl Harrell and Jamychal Green in the offseason, they added Serge Ibaka and Luke Kennard to arguably make their rotation even deeper and more versatile. The Clippers may not finish the regular season with one of the top five records in the league, but when the playoffs start it is hard to bet against the talent and depth on this roster.
4. Brooklyn Nets
NBA fans are anxiously waiting to see Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant share the floor in regular season action. Two of the most polarizing yet exciting stars in the league are now paired up on a team that was already deep with NBA caliber players. They may take time to gel, and there is no telling what Durant will look like coming off of an achilles injury 18 months ago, but the talent is clearly there to get this team a top four seed in the East and make a run to the finals. There is also the added intrigue of a potential trade for James Harden during the regular season. This would prove tough to pull off, and the Rockets do not seem motivated to move Harden anytime soon, but the Nets will certainly make offers to try to acquire the superstar. Adding Harden to an Irving and Durant core may vault this team into “title favorite” status.
5. Miami Heat
The surprise team of the NBA bubble did not make any significant moves this offseason outside of resigning and extending their own players. The front office was likely maintaining flexibility for a certain Greek superstar that just signed a contract extension. With their hopes for Giannis dashed, the Heat could suddenly become very aggressive on the trade market early in the season or near the deadline to bolster their odds of winning a championship this year. They realized they did not have enough to get past the Lakers in the championship, and the Eastern Conference has only improved since last season. I would expect Pat Riley, President of the Miami Heat, to exhaust all efforts to maximize his team this year to help Jimmy Butler and co. make a championship run.
Dark Horse Contender: Portland Trailblazers
After a disappointing regular season that saw missed time from key players up and down the roster, the Blazers were still able to sneak into the playoffs as the eighth seed in the West. They even stole game 1 of their series with the Lakers before bowing out of the playoffs in the first round. The perennial problem in Portland has been their recent lack of quality wings that can shoot and defend. Injuries and player departures have kept that position from having any consistency during the tenure of their two best players, Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum. After an emergence from Gary Trent Jr. in the bubble and offseason acquisitions of Robert Covington and Derrick Jones Jr, the Blazers may finally have quality depth at one of the most important positions. They will also have Rodney Hood and Zach Collins returning from injury, further boosting their depth and versatility. With good health, this team could have the star power, quality coaching, and team depth to grab a high seed in the Western Conference and make some noise in the playoffs.
First Overall Pick Contenders
- New York Knicks
Oh the Knicks. Tom Thibodeau will have his work cut out for him with the roster that has been handed to him. RJ Barrett certainly has potential as a slashing wing and Obi Toppin should be a rookie that can contribute fairly quickly, but the rest of the roster does not seem to be built to maximize either of those two young players. With the 2021 NBA draft considered one of the stronger drafts in recent years, and a top flight prospect in Cade Cunningham expected to be the number one pick, maybe the roster was intentionally designed this way. I am sure front offices would NEVER intentionally try to have a bad record… Maybe this will be the year that lottery luck finally swings in New York’s direction.
2. Oklahoma City Thunder
Now here is a team that is not hiding their intentions for this season. They are ready to bottom-out in the standings. Over the past couple of seasons, general manager Sam Presti has torn down a mediocre playoff team and turned them into an incredibly young roster lacking in depth and experience but high on potential. Oh, and he has also accumulated the most massive treasure chest of 1st round picks in NBA history over the next couple of seasons. The team was essentially torn down to be built back up in whatever way Presti sees fit. He has the assets to take the rebuild in any direction. Snagging the #1 pick in the 2021 draft would certainly be a great way to kickoff the early stages of the rebuild.
3. Cleveland Cavaliers
LeBron James left the Cavaliers for the 2nd time in his career a few years ago, and again sent them on a downward spiral towards the bottom of the Eastern Conference. Unfortunately for Cleveland they have not been lucky enough to get the 1st overall pick after James left this time around. Their future is certainly bright with recent top 10 picks Collin Sexton, Darius Garland, and Isaac Okoro forming a decent future trio, but it is hard to envision any of those 3 turning into star players. Led by those young players, they will likely head towards the bottom of the Eastern Conference standings again this season. With a little luck, they could end up with an unprecedented 4th #1 overall pick in the last 18 years.
4. Sacramento Kings
The Kings have a new general manager, Monte McNair, and he wasted no time making moves. He added centers Hassan Whiteside and Frank Kaminsky, and also drafted Iowa State standout Tyrese Haliburton. McNair also extended the team’s franchise player, De’Aaron Fox, for another 5 years. For a team that was competitive and ended last season on a positive note, this would have been an adequate offseason to continue their upward trajectory. Unfortunately they let their second best player, Bogdan Bogdanovic, walk away in restricted free agency, losing him for nothing. This leaves a gaping hole in their guard rotation that is unlikely to be filled by Haliburton or anyone else on the roster this season. In the competitive Western Conference, they could not afford to regress, and unfortunately they may be set up to do just that. Hopefully the draft lottery is good to them this time around.
5. Detroit Pistons
The Pistons seem to have a high variance on where they end in the standings. On one hand, they have veterans Blake Griffin and Derrick Rose, who can be great offensive players capable of carrying a team when healthy. On the other hand they are filled with young players and some ill-fitting players that could take plenty of time to get up to speed with NBA basketball. If Rose and Griffin miss their fair share of games, the Pistons could find themselves getting shoved further down the standings in an increasingly competitive Eastern Conference. A #1 overall pick in 2021 would certainly shift this team into a full rebuild, and it would be a great way to start it off.
Dark Horse Contender: Houston Rockets
The Rockets have typically been a well-run franchise that is nearly always competitive. This offseason they acquired John Wall and signed several good players in free agency including Christian Wood and DeMarcus Cousins. They still have PJ Tucker, Eric Gordon, and James Harden as well. If that roster stays on the court, they will likely be a playoff team. However there is a world in which James Harden gets traded for a load of draft picks and young players. Suddenly the competitiveness of the team rests with Wall, Wood, and Cousins which is a shaky proposition at best. Wall and Cousins have not had fully healthy seasons in years, and Wood only has a half season of quality play under his belt. A Harden trade could start a chain reaction with Houston shifting into a full rebuild, and I believe they will keep their 2021 1st round pick if it falls between picks 1–4, otherwise they lose it. That could give them a little extra incentive to lean into a rebuild. The variance for this team is all over the place. Nothing is certain, but they will be one to keep an eye on.
-Jerry W.
